2008年12月16日 星期二

Emerging China, Unbalanced Asia - on the new rising space powers

Flying to the moon, it used to be the legend of China. Now, it becomes a new mission of China National Space Administration. After decades of developing in space technology, China has achieved many space missions. One of the major succeed is that China has accomplished the first space walk mission just after the China's Olympics. However, does it mean that China has the superior space power than any other country in Asia? Can we say that, China's space power has unbalanced the structure of the Asia security? Obviously, it won't be quiet at all in the sky of Asia in the future.

The space power of China

In this century, sending astronauts into the space is the most important mission for Chinese government. They believe that China will be a great country by have superior space power.
Tsien Hsue-Shen (錢學森), the father of modern China’s space program, he was also the first director of the ballistic missile program. In 1958, with the help of the Soviets, China started the plans of the Dongfeng missile (東風導彈) which was first successfully launched in 1964.
In 1970, On April 24, China launched its first satellite, DFH-1 (Dong Fang Hong-東方紅), it transmitted the anthem during its 15-day mission. By this time, the carrier was designed and operated by China itself. In 1985, China entered the commercial space launch market. Between 1985 and 2000 they launched 27 foreign-made satellites. By the last century, China has become one of the key players in the outer space.
China has independently developed the "Long-March" (長征火箭) rocket group, containing 12 types of launching vehicles capable of launching satellites to near-earth, geo-stationary and sun-synchronous orbits. The largest launching capacity of the "Long-March" rockets has reached 9,200 kg for near-earth orbit, and 5,100 kg for geo-stationary transfer orbit, able to basically meet the demands of customers of all kinds. Since 1985, when the Chinese government announced to put the "Long-March" rockets into the international commercial launching market, China has launched 27 foreign-made satellites into space, thus acquiring a share of the international commercial launching market. Up to now, the "Long-March" rockets have accomplished 63 launches, and made 21 consecutive successful flights from October 1996 to October 2000.China has initiated its manned spaceflight program in 1992, and the unmanned experimental spacecraft "Shenzhou" (神州) was launched in November, 1999. In October, 2003, China became the third countries to launch an astronaut into orbit. The second manned Sheenzhou -6 was launched in 2005. These two successful missions has inspired Chinese people. It seems that Chinese Dragon is orbiting the earth. Chinese government has received a huge political pride.
There are two more political prides of China in the beginning of this century. On 24Th. Oct. 2007, China launched its first lunar probe Chang’e-1(嫦娥一號), first step into its three-stage moon mission. One month latter, Chang’e-1 sent back the first photo of the moon, marking a new milestone. The other one is the space walk in 2008. The space walk is also the third manned flight for China.


The space power of Japan and India
Japan
Compared with China, Japan has similar space capabilities. Japan has its own launch vehicle H-IIA, although it has not send astronauts into orbit. The first successful launch was back in 1994. The H-11A is designed to meet diverse launch demands. it can push a two-ton class satellite into geostationary orbit, it can also to launch payloads into low and medium-altitude orbits. Moreover, Japan achieved lunar exploration earlier than China. "The SELenological and ENgineering Explorer "KAGUYA"(SELENE), Japan’s first large lunar explorer, was launched by the H-IIA rocket on September 14, 2007 (JST). The mission, which is the largest lunar mission since the Apollo program, is being keenly anticipated by many countries."
However, there is a big difference between Japan's and China's space development strategies. China tends to develop space technologies on its own from the launch system to satellite manufacture. Japan adopts a more open strategy to develop space skill. Japan takes part in the International Space Station by building the "Japanese Experiment Module (JEM) 'KIBO,' the first Japanese manned experimental facility, to the ISS started in March 2008, and is scheduled to be completed in 2009."

source from Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency

India
"Chandrayaan-1 spacecraft was launched from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre, SHAR, Sriharikota by PSLV-XL (PSLV-C11) on 22 October 2008", Chandrayaan-1 is India's lunar exploration project which was approved by India's government in 2003. Until now, there are three Asian countries, Japan, China and India undertaking missions to moon. And they all send spacecrafts to orbit the moon. That means,India as Japan and China has ability to launch payloads into Leo, Meo and Geo orbits.
India builds "the Geo-synchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) is designed to place satellites in Geo-Synchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO)" by adopting the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) which has been developed in the early 90's. India developed its launch system since 1962 and the first sounding rocket launch in November,1963. In the 70's, India developed a new launch system Satellite Launch Vehicle to carry satellite. The first SLV-3 with satellite Rohini was launched in 1979, failed to place the satellite to be in orbit. However, it succeeded in the following year.

source from Indian Space Research Organisation


The Comparison of Budgets and Main Missions

































































country


CHINA


JAPAN


INDIA


RUSSIA


ESA


NASA


2005 budget


$0.50 B

$2.50 B


$0.70 B


$0.70 B


$3.70 B


$16.10 B


2006 budget


$1.50 B

$2.15 B


$0.82 B


$0.87 B


$3.52 B


$16.62 B


2007 budget


$1.50 B

$2.21 B

$0.88 B

$1.32 B

$4.02 B

$16.10 B

lunar exploration


2007

Chang'e






2007

KAGUYA




2008

Chandrayaan-1




1959, Soviet probe Luna 2, landed on the Moon




2003, SMART 1


1969,

the first man on the Moon


manned spaceflight


2003

Shenzhou


no


no


1961

Vostok 1


no


1961

freedom 7


Global

Position

System


Beidou

Quasi-Zenith

IRNSS

GLONASS

Galileo

NAVSTAR GPS
sources from the space report, NASA, space.com, ISRO, JAXA, CNSA

Launch vehicle performance in 2007

http://www.thespacereport.org/images/content/tsr08_3d.png







source from the space report 2007, the Space Foundation

The security structure of Asia pacific region- Peace or Threat

During the cold war era, it was the vital competition between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. to control the outer space. At that time, there is no serious international cooperation to develop space technologies, there no serious international space organization, either.
However, after the collapse of the soviet union, the idea to develop space technologies has changed fundamentally. Those technologies can be adopted into commercial applications. The most popular one is the Global Position System. On the other hand, there are some international cooperation or organizations to develop space technologies for peace. The most famous cooperation is the International Space Station (ISS), and the most well known organisation is European Space Agency (ESA).
To build a space station was a vital space race between the U.S.and the U.S.S.R. In the military sense, who builds a space station who domains the earth. Now, the space station becomes an international cooperation. The International Space Station was launched on November 20, 1998 and the first crew of astronauts arrived on the InternationalSpace Station on November 2, 2000. There are 16 countries: Canada, Japan, Russia, 11 nations of the European Space Agency and Brazil join the cooperation.All these countries have their own contributions to the ISS. For example:

  • The United States has the responsibility for developing and ultimatelyoperating major elements and systems aboard the station. The U.S. elements include three connecting modules, or nodes; a laboratory module; truss segments; four solar arrays; a habitation module; three
    mating adapters; a cupola; an unpressurized logistics carrier and a
    centrifuge module. The various systems being developed by the U.S.
    include thermal control; life support; guidance, navigation and
    control; data handling; power systems; communications and tracking;
    ground operations facilities and launch-site processing facilities.

  • The European Space Agency is building a pressurized laboratory to be
    launched on the Space Shuttle and logistics transport vehicles to be
    launched on the Ariane 5 launch vehicle.

  • Japan is building a laboratory with an attached exposed exterior platform for
    experiments as well as logistics transport vehicles.

  • Russia is providing two research modules; an early living quarters called the
    Service Module with its own life support and habitation systems; a
    science power platform of solar arrays that can supply about 20
    kilowatts of electrical power; logistics transport vehicles; and Soyuz
    spacecraft for crew return and transfer.

source from space.com , the International Space Station website

European Space Agency is created in 1975, there are 10 founding members: Belgium, Germany, Denmark, France, United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and Spain. "ESA's purpose shall be to provide for, and to promote, for exclusively peaceful purposes, cooperation among European States in space research and technology and their space applications, with a view to their being used for scientific purposes and for operational space applications systems....." In 2005, A joint meeting of the EU Council and the ESA Ministerial Council, known as the 'Space Council' decided that ESA and its Member States are in charge of space exploration and space science, and for providing the tools needed for space activities, in particular access to space and technology. Now, ESA has 18 members: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

source from ESA website

China and Japan has established their own international space organizations. Those organization have been working for a long time. However, they are not as well organized as ESA. Members have no obligations in Japan's or China's space organizations. Conferences and forums have not touched policy or security issues. On the other hand, space projects in these organizations are not big enough to collaborate countries in Asia.
China organize Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO) based in Beijing in 2005. At the beginning, Pakistan and Thailand jointly proposed the initiative of the Asia-Pacific Multilateral Cooperation in Space Technology and Applications (AP-MCSTA) in 1992. In July 2001, the AP-MCSTA Secretariat was established. In 2003, "official delegations from nine Asia-Pacific countries attended the Meeting of the Drafting Group of the APSCO Convention in Beijing". In 2005, "the signing ceremony of the APSCO Convention was held in Beijing and representatives from the Governments of Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan, Peru and Thailand signed the Convention".
The space project in APSCO is the Small Multi-Mission Satellite (SMMS). "The MOU on the Cooperation in Small Multi-Mission Satellite (SMMS) project was jointly signed by China, Iran, Republic of Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan and Thailand on April 22 1998 in Bangkok". and "the first optical satellite of the SMMS has been scheduled to be launched by China either in late 2007or early 2008".

source from AP-MCSTA website , global security.org

Japan established the Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum (APRSAF) in 1993, which is "to enhance the development of each country's space program and to exchange views toward future cooperation in space activities in the Asia-Pacific region." So far, the APRSAF still focus on holding conference and workshop. The participants includes Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Bhutan, Canada, Cambodia, China,France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Korea, Lao, Malaysia, Mongolia, Union of Myanmar, Nepal, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, the U.S., and Viet Nam.

source from APRSAF website


Unbalanced Asia

In January, 2007, China launched anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons designed to destroy satellites for strategic military purposes. The Chinese Feng Yun 1C (FY-1C) -an inactive Chinese weather satellite was destroyed by "a ground-based medium-range ballistic missile. This would probably be the DF-21 / CSS-5 medium range ballistic missile, with a range of 1800 km carrying a 600 kg warhead". Moreover, the ASAT "intercepted the target at an altitude of variously reported as either 530 or 537 miles. This altitude is consistent with the operational altitudes of American and Japanese imagery intelligence satellites". This test raised the security concern for China's neighbors in Asia and the US. By now, there are only three countries, China, Russia and the US. have developed anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons.

source from globalsecurity.org

As we know, there are no projects like the ISS, nor multinational organizations like ESA in Asia and Space technologies can be easily adopted into military applications. In other words, space power could danger Asia's security because there is no mutual trust in this region. Any country owning superior space power in Asia, will become a super power in this area. Therefore, the development of space technologies in Asia would turn out to be a space race just like what happened in the last century.

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